Kidpic trio will have trouble toppling 'Dawn'

A wealth of choices for family auds over Thanksgiving weekend could cause kidpic cannibalization. Disney's "The Muppets" is expected to top Aardman Animation's 3D CGI "Arthur Christmas" and Martin Scorsese's 3D, f/x-laden "Hugo." But B.O. observers aren't counting on Kermit and the gang to beat Summit's "Twilight" crew, as holdover "Breaking Dawn -- Part 1" is projected to gross in the $60 millions in five days. "The Muppets," which bows today at 3,440 locations, should earn somewhere north of $40 million through Sunday, according to pre-weekend tracking services. B.O. pundits expect Sony's "Arthur Christmas," which cost a reported $98 million, to earn $15 million-$17 million in five days at 3,376 locations, while Paramount's "Hugo," made by GK Films for a pricey $170 million, is tracking on the soft side in the low double digits, though it opens at just 1,277. All three wide openers are seeing more positive reviews than the average family pic, which could widen appeal. Overseas B.O. won't see a similar holiday boost, and "Breaking Dawn" should win again after last weekend's $152.9 million international bow. "Arthur Christmas" opens day-and-date in Australia, France and Japan, while "The Muppets" launches only in Mexico. Disney has a steady track record at the Thanksgiving box office. Last year, Disney's "Tangled" started out strong with a five-day take of $53.7 million. But that wasn't enough to beat "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2," which collected $75 million in its second outing. Given the multigenerational appeal for "The Muppets," starring Amy Adams and Jason Segel and budgeted at a relatively inexpensive $45 million, some bizzers say the film could outdo expectations. And while some tracking runs as high as $48 million, the Mouse has offered a more modest prediction in the high $30 millions. Disney has flexed considerable marketing muscle in promoting to older teens and college-age students. The blitz unofficially began two years ago, when the Muppet Studio uploaded a version of "Bohemian Rhapsody" to YouTube that's since nabbed more than 23 million views; the campaign came to a head with the Muppets' recent appearance on "Saturday Night Live." "Breaking Dawn" should see a three-day week-to-week drop similar to that of "New Moon," which fell 72% this weekend in 2009. "New Moon" debuted with $143 million; "Breaking Dawn" collected $138 million opening weekend and has tallied almost $148 million so far. The penultimate "Twilight" pic has little competition for teen girls. When it comes to family films, however, the trio of new entries will compete with holdovers like "Happy Feet Two" and "Puss in Boots" to lure tots. "Feet" bowed last weekend to a soft $21 million in three days but should hold steady, with a projected five-day take in the mid-$20 millions. "Happy Feet Two" cumed nearly $23 million through Tuesday; "Puss in Boots" approaches $125 million domestically. 3D likely will have a marginal effect on both films. Last weekend, "Happy Feet" earned just 50% of its opening from 3D -- similar to "Puss in Boots" at 51%. That's better than some of the summer's 3D toons (e.g., "Cars 2") but down significantly from this time last year with films like "Megamind" and "Tangled." "Arthur Christmas" bows at 2,378 3D locations; "Hugo" has approximately 1,000 3D locations. Contact Andrew Stewart at andrew.stewart@variety.com